DocuSign updated S-1 and priced its IPO

For a moment I thought how could be so wrong as DocuSign announced pricing their IPO at $24 to $26 per share. At the median price of $25, this would represent a $3.2B pre-money excluding the $540M new money it will raise.

My prediction was in the range of $2.0B~$2.5B if the reader remembers. At first I felt embarrassed, then I told myself that's impossible. Then I checked more closely - surely they have updated their S-1 with the fiscal year 2018 numbers, the lacking of which was my main concern and why I discounted their market cap against Box, which had similar numbers until fiscal year 2017.

Box' 10-k is not out yet, but as can be seen above with DocuSign's 2018F numbers, they look pretty good. Revenue grows a healthy 36% YoY. Gross Margin improved to 77% (from 73%). Above anything, S&M expenses dropped to 54% (from 69%) as a percentage of revenue. OCF also turned positive to be 11% of the Revenue.

All in all, my only concern went away. All numbers improved nicely. Given that I don't expect Box to be too surprising in their 10-K - predictability is the merit of SaaS B2B startups - and their market cap is $2.8B currently. From this angle a pre-IPO market cap of $3.2B isn't too far off for DocuSign given the strong numbers.

I stand corrected.

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